For Nepal, A Serious Existential Threat Lurks Peacefully

Here’s part II of the conversation that Nepal Verified News had with defense-security analyst and Brigadier General (retired) of the Nepali Army, Keshar Bahadur Bhandari (PhD), against the backdrop of a fresh round of hostilities between India and Pakistan.

The trust deficit

Firstly, Nepal shares an open border with India and is its close friend. It’s unclear, though, as to why India gives troubles to Nepal. For example, India has imposed four blockades in Nepal (since the 1950s). It harries Nepal along the border. Such activities may be a minor thing for India, but is a major irritant for Nepal as they hurt our national sentiments.

A bitter fact

Secondly, a bitter reminder: India also sponsored terrorists against Nepal, didn’t it? I am talking about the Maoists, whom Nepal as well as India had declared as terrorists…. 

India fed and sheltered the terrorists, who killed thousands of people in Nepal (during the decade-long war), despite declaring them as terrorists. India should look back at its misdeeds also.

For decades, India has been effecting system changes — and not just government changes — in Nepal. 
Even with Nepal, its ties are not that great, leave alone other South Asian countries. If India can bring Nepal into confidence, many other nations will come to India’s support for the latter’s causes.

India is our indispensable neighbor. Nepal-India relations will improve tremendously if India sheds its big brotherly attitude and adopts a softer approach….This will be quite helpful for India as Nepal can lobby for India in different fora.

What’s more, if Nepal manages to enter into a 50-year treaty of peace and friendship with China and India, the global political dimension will undergo a massive change.

Nepal should definitely think about and strive for this epoch.

A great game

In global politics, economics and diplomacy, powerful nations obviously dictate the terms and conditions. Today, the United States is the superpower, China is likely to helm the coveted position while India is not lagging much behind in terms of economic clout and military might, either.
If these two great powers come together, no power will be able to confine them and curb their rise. With economic and military prowess, their influence will spread. My understanding is that the Asian Century will come sooner if India and China come closer while the arrival may take a bit longer even if Japan and other Asian powers come together.

Open border concerns

Nepal has had several opportunities to  regulate the open border, to shut it partially in the light of its own security concerns and concerns of its neighbors. One more opportunity has come our way.  

With people of similar forms and features entering and exiting through the open border, it is difficult for Nepal to establish their identities and their motives.  
Investigations into some of the attacks in India indeed found that some top-notch terrorists had sheltered in Nepal. There are two ways to prevent such incidents.  

Firstly, we must turn our open border into a well-regulated one. This step alone can do a lot to improve border security.

Secondly, Nepal should develop deterrence. This is something which the country can easily do on its own. Nepal should be able to assure southern and northern neighbors that it is capable of preventing activities inimical to their interests from taking place within its boundaries. For this, Nepal should develop the deterrence capabilities of security forces, civilian administration, the public and intelligence agencies. Such capabilities will guarantee our own security and allay the security concerns of our neighbors by curbing unlawful activities like smuggling and acts of terrorism. 
We should be thinking along these lines, which we hardly do. Leave aside big talk, we even do not do things that can be done easily. At the least, we should turn the open border between Nepal and India into a regulated one.

Tripartite peace and friendship treaty

Smaller nations do not necessarily have to be weaker. Look at Israel, a power to reckon with in the Mideast. Smaller and bigger are relative terms, capabilities are what matter. No matter what, living with neighbors with amity is our only option. In the event of aggression, we cannot repel it. 
Diplomacy comes next. Where did our diplomatic acumen, our diplomatic skills go? Rather than emerging stronger by developing our diplomatic skills further, we are becoming more and more vulnerable. If we encounter certain difficulties in our coexistence with our big neighbors, why can’t we articulate them, why can’t we acquire the capabilities to do so?

Nuclear threat is not that relevant to us, all we have to worry about is the spillover effect of the possible use of nukes (in the neighborhood). Even in the event of use of tactical nukes (in the neighborhood), we will suffer, hence the need to raise awareness and develop capabilities to shield populations from that effect.
That’s all.

King Birendra’s Zone of Peace proposal was meant to protect Nepal from existential threats. Nepal should strive to sign a 50-year treaty of peace and friendship in view of threats to its existence.

The worst-case scenario

If worst comes to worst, what do we do? 
Our national army is not an ornamental institution, it has a certain strategy for national defense, it has a level of deterrence.

Look at Afghanistan. Over the centuries, it has driven away superpowers of different eras. Especially in the rugged terrains of the hills in Nepal, fighting won’t be easy for any foreign force.

In the face of a serious existential threat, the national army will opt for mass mobilization for an indefinite war. In such a case, Nepal should go for an indefinite war till it regains national independence, that is our strategy, that should be our strategy.

A very serious threat

Our existence is getting compromised every day and there are fears that the whole of it may be compromised one day.

All dimensions of invasion — political, economic, cultural — have been going on. Those at the helm of affairs in the country should have been aware of this threat before long, they are not aware, they don’t want to be aware…. This is a very serious existential threat to the country. 

Read also: https://nepalverifiednews.com/news/dreams-of-peace-progress-and-prosperity-in-the-sha