Dreams of Peace, Progress and Prosperity in the Shadows of A War

A defense-security analyst and Brigadier General (retired) of the Nepali Army, Keshar Bahadur Bhandari (PhD) sees a unique opportunity for Nepal to act as a peacemaker and as an actor that can bring about peace dividends to the entire region that is home to three nuclear powers.

Here’s part I of the conversation that Nepal Verified News had with General Bhandari:

A pause and an elusive peace

I don’t think the Indo-Pak war will last long, notwithstanding what propaganda campaigns have been claiming. India has been conducting attacks in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad of Pakistan in the wake of the Pahalgam attack. My reading is that this will last only for a few days, amid mounting pressure from the US, diplomatic initiatives from Iran and calls from influential figures from around the world to stop the war.

India has stated that it’s been hitting targeted terrorist sites — and not military targets —  while Pakistan has also been stating that it does not want escalation. As things stand, aerial strikes may continue for 1-2 days after which (this phase of) the conflict will gradually move toward settlement.

But Indo-Pak tensions were there, are there and will continue for a long time to come because India and Pakistan are born enemies, they are archnemeses with prehistorical negativity. But the two countries have a precedence of putting a pause on their hostilities through negotiations and I don’t see the latest round going any other way. I don’t see the animosity ending easily, though.

A key role for Nepal?

Firstly, as the land of the Buddha, as the zone of peace, as a seat of ancient civilizations and the chair of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Nepal should make efforts to deescalate the situation by trying to revive the regional bloc. India wants SAARC minus Pakistan, which is not possible.

Nepal should opt for Track II, Track III diplomacy and people-to-people initiatives to diffuse the situation.

If left unchecked, the animus between the two countries will not end, not until they cease to be. 

That aside, India also has tense ties with China, the (2020-21) Galwan Valley clash is still fresh in their minds.

Secondly, becoming a member of the United Nations Security Council is a national aspiration of India whereas China wants to expand its sphere of influence through the Belt and Road Initiative so as to prevent rivals from encircling it and interfering with its economic development.

Imagine the welcome changes that will follow if Nepal manages to bring the two countries together for the fulfillment of their respective national aspirations…. If India and China manage to bury the hatchet, the chances of India becoming a UNSC member with support from Russia will increase. 

India and China, if they manage to come together, will constitute the world’s most powerful military power and the largest economy. If that happens, they will be able to dictate their terms and conditions to the whole world.

Thirdly, the much-talked-about Asian Century, expected to materialize in 2050, will materialize within the mid-2030s if there’s a cessation of hostilities between India and China.  

If this happens, this region, home to the world’s three nuclear powers, will become a region of peace and prosperity, a shining example to the whole world. 

If only Nepal manages to connect China and India through her territories by means of the Belt and Road Initiative…. That will be a stunning example for the whole world!

Needless to say, that will resolve the Indo-Pak conflict too, allowing it to take a normal course.